President-elect Donald Trump’s promises to impose tighter immigration controls and execute mass deportations have created a chilling effect long before any policies have been officially enacted. Across the country, immigrant communities and the industries reliant on their labor are bracing for a potential upheaval, one that could profoundly alter the fabric of the American economy and society.
For veteran restaurateur Sam Sanchez, the impact of these threats is already visible in places like Chicago’s Little Village, a vibrant neighborhood often referred to as the “Mexico of the Midwest.” Once bustling with activity, the area has seen a noticeable downturn. “Some restaurants told me their sales are down by half,” said Sanchez, who runs Third Coast Hospitality Group and serves on the American Business Immigration Coalition. “People are afraid to walk the streets. Fear is everywhere, and it’s having a cascading effect on businesses.”
This fear is not unfounded. With millions of undocumented workers forming the backbone of industries like agriculture, hospitality, and construction, the mere suggestion of mass deportations is enough to trigger widespread uncertainty. Sanchez worries about a snowball effect where undocumented workers stay home, businesses lose staff, and entire sectors face the risk of collapse.
Economists echo these concerns, highlighting the deep entwinement of undocumented labor in the U.S. economy. Giovanni Peri, director of the Global Migration Center at UC Davis, estimates there are 10.5 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S., with approximately 8.5 million actively employed. Industries reliant on this workforce are already struggling to fill vacancies, and deportations would exacerbate those shortages.
Peri warns that reducing the labor pool in critical sectors could lead to slower growth and a contraction in economic output. The hardest-hit industries, such as agriculture and hospitality, would face not only operational disruptions but also rising costs. For example, farms reliant on undocumented labor might experience a sharp decline in productivity, leading to food shortages and higher grocery prices for consumers.
Ron Estrada, CEO of Farmworker Justice, underscores the precarious position of the agricultural sector. Many farmworkers have been in the U.S. for decades, contributing to a system that feeds the nation. “They are the front lines of our food system,” Estrada said. “Mass deportations would slash the agricultural workforce in half, causing ripple effects that could jeopardize food security.”
Despite their essential contributions, many of these workers lack a pathway to legal residency. Programs like the H-2A visa, designed for seasonal agricultural work, fail to address the year-round needs of the industry. Efforts to expand legal protections for undocumented farmworkers have stalled, leaving millions in limbo as they face the threat of deportation.
Trump’s proposed policies, aimed at curbing demand and lowering costs, may ultimately have the opposite effect, economists argue. While proponents claim that removing undocumented immigrants would ease housing and job competition, the reality is that their absence would create severe labor shortages, pushing businesses to downsize or close entirely.
These challenges are compounded by the reluctance of American-born workers to take on many of the jobs currently held by undocumented immigrants. In 2011, a North Carolina program to hire local farmworkers demonstrated the limited appetite for such work. Of the nearly 270 applicants, only seven completed the harvest season. “Few Americans are willing to do these jobs,” Estrada noted, a sentiment echoed by industry leaders across the country.
The restaurant industry offers another stark example of the potential fallout. During the COVID-19 pandemic, labor shortages left many establishments struggling to operate. Sanchez recalls how some restaurants could only open for a few days a week due to a lack of workers. “The labor force willing to show up was largely made up of undocumented immigrants,” he said. “They’ve been the backbone of our economy, working hard and paying taxes for decades.”
While some immigrants remain hopeful that a new administration might pave the way for reforms, the fear of immediate deportation casts a long shadow. For individuals like Joanne Eriaku, a single mother and entrepreneur seeking asylum after fleeing Uganda, the uncertainty is deeply personal. Having built a new life in the U.S. over seven years, Eriaku now faces the possibility of being uprooted once again.
Eriaku, who runs multiple businesses while raising her sons, worries about their future. Her eldest, nearing 21, will soon need to apply for asylum independently—a daunting prospect given the current climate. “I just want him to have the chance to finish school and build a life here,” she said. “I can’t imagine him being sent back to Uganda.”
As the country awaits clarity on the administration’s next steps, the tension is palpable. While some believe that Trump’s promises may not translate into sweeping actions, the fear and disruption they have already caused are undeniable.
